My NBA Fantasy Season so far, part II
Time for the twenty-day checkup.
First of all, in typical fashion, Stoudamire laid a big egg for three games right off the bat, so I dropped him the day before he returned to form. However, I dropped him for Delonte West, so I can't be too upset about that.
Childress, Chandler, TMac, and Jefferson have really stepped up for me in the last three weeks. I was in the midst of a two-week win streak at the time of my team realignment. I continued on to two more decisive wins, moving up into fourth place. That is, until I matched up against number-one guy last week, who sneaked out a 7-4 win after I had dominated him for six days. A few less DNPs and a Yao Ming, and I might've had a chance. I'm really worried about him in the long run, though, because his team (let's call him El Sucko) matches up the best against my wacko strategy.
El Sucko caught a lot of crap for taking Nash and Kidd with his first two picks, which turned out to be genius, because his keepers, KG and Vinsanity, are going off the charts this season. In our leagues, I find that the team that locks up Assists and Steals is usually in good shape to win. It means you've got a lot of guards who hopefully can shoot halfway decently, and you might have that rare big man, like KG, who helps with all the defensive stats. Throw in Deron Williams (yet another PG) a specialist like Sam Dalembert, a smart early pickup in Kevin Martin, and a lucky waiver claim for Igoudala (one ahead of mine) and you've got five of the top 25 performers by average in the league, plus some good role players. I figured Sucko's roster scag would be his undoing, but apparently keeping Erick Dampier, Brendan Haywood, Grant Hill, and Jeff Foster around ain't hurting him. Bynum is the only guy I have averaging anywhere near the ranks of these guys, and he should hardly count against these "cagey" veterans.
In the midst of my successful run, I was four games above .500, 14.5 games back, and in fifth place. Today, I'm 12 games over .500, 13.5 back, and in fifth place. I've got to be happy with that. As the competition has performed better than average above me, I've performed just as well, or better. How did this happen? Well, before I go into the details, let me link to Radar, who wrote a similar article that I ran across while rethinking my team.
I took a little look-see at the Yahoo Head-to-Head stats page, which is really an invaluable resource because it tells you how you perform vs. the opposition instead of just giving you the arcane Yahoo player ranks, which overvalue 3s, and low TOs and PFs. My team generally wins O and D Rebs, Assists, and Blocks, and is bad at %, Points, and PFs. My borderline categories were 3s and Steals. If I could add those two cats to my "generally win" column, that gives me 6 out of 11 cats, and a win – statistical anomalies aside. What I looked for 20 days ago were the difference-makers. The guys playing well right now who could deliver minimum one 3 and one Steal p/game. As it turned out, Delonte West, Jefferson, Chandler, and TMac also simultaneously started to deliver in the points and %s. Hence, four wins in a row.
Here's why this is bad. Barring some kind of injury to Sucko's squad, I need to end up in 6th, 3rd or 2nd place to stand a chance in the playoffs. Why? He's killing me in total 3s, Assists, D Reb, and Steals. Those are four of my must-win cats. Yao will help with Boards, Assists, and Points, but a first-round match-up with this guy is bad news because I don't think I can revamp my team via trades to face him, nor will it benefit me now to do so. However, I think in any given week I can beat just about anyone else, and a second-place finish is at least in-the-money. All this chatter boils down to the fact that I need to get much better or tank it during the last week to get my best playoff draw. But, let's see what happens after the All-Star break and Yao's return, first.
This week I'm going up against fourth place, who is a 1/2 game ahead of me. I'm currently pulling my usual 6-5, but I'm close in FT%, Points and PFs. I feel this is a statement week as only 5 games separates me from second place.
A quick note about picking up free agents. If you've never sorted by the weekly avgs stat, it's the best tool Yahoo has for finding pickups – in basketball or baseball. A quick glance between the weekly and monthly averages, and it's easy to identify the important players, even if you don't have cable, like me. And before I make my weekly jaunt to the bar for TNT NBA tomorrow, I have to wonder why they have the Heat on every goddam week?
