New Methodology
I won the Handsome Gents league in 2002, finished 4th in 2003, finished 3rd in 2004, and have since retreated to the rear of the pack. I don't think it is a coincidence that my slide conformed to becoming more overtly SABRmetric in 2005 and beyond. Ironically, my general instinct towards trending stats like slugging and OBP had served me well until I really began trying to grasp the number-crunching that intense analysis requires. And failed miserably.
When I added free agents David Ortiz and Johan Santana as Twins early in their careers, the value I saw in the former was an abnormal percentage of extra-base hits (51% in 2001), and a tremendous K/BB ratio (nearly 3-1 when he came out of the pen as a 23-year-old in 2002) and K/9 in the latter. Just looking for these basic trends paid off huge dividends. I wish the Yahoo! wayback machine included my championship team in its archives, but for some reason, that single year is N/A. I would like to see who else was on that team.
As I became more aware of overlooked statistical categories in the post-Moneyball era, I now feel confident that I completely and utterly misunderstood what I was reading. Especially when it came to the Baseball Prospectus. Basically, I was totally misreading the meaning of VORP. And misinterpreting the Breakout/Improve/Collapse percentages.
Main goals for 2008:
1) Build a team around several expensive players who deliver above average OPS, HR and RBI.
2) Young speed with upside over old speed with no other value.
3) No pitcher over $10 (except Rich Hill and Cole Hamels, who cost me $17 each)
4) Position scarcity is real! (and even more important in a snake draft...more to come on that, too)
5) No AL starters. Relievers are ok.
I kept Brandon Phillips($25), who the Prospectus is a little sour on, and Justin Upton($14). Phillips is a 30-30 threat who never walks and Upton is a nice breakout candidate. This meant jettisoning Travis Hafner, Andruw Jones, and a number of other guys that killed me last year.
My goal was to spend whatever it took to get: Aramis Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Mark Teixeira, and Billy Butler. And I did. I was going to punt catcher if Brian McCann got too high, and he did. Josh Bard is my kind of catcher: a good hitter who won't kill my AVG. Likewise, I was going to go with bargain basement J.J. Hardy if Tejada got too pricey, and he did. In our league SS was a challenged position with Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes, Tulowitzki, and Guillen all kept. I didn't want Jeter, and Young, Renteria, Cabrera, Polanco all felt the same to me. Hardy started strong last year and faded, but hit 25 HRs and is on a pretty loaded lineup. When Tejada was going to go in the $20s, Hardy for 1/3 the price seemed like a really good way to save some money, and my only competition would be our two Brewer homers. Turns out he was even cheaper than I expected. Kelly Johnson was a nice surprise addition to my bench, especially since PECOTA likes him much more than Phillips.
To fill out the outfield, I wanted a combination of upside and youth with lots of power potential, because you can always find a 20+ HR guy on the waiver wire. My shortlist consisted of Nick Swisher(new park, lots of BBs), Rick Ankiel, and Josh Hamilton. All of whom I got by dropping my minor league keeper Cameron Maybin, when one bonehead dropped Hamilton after the auction. I would certainly make that trade if offered.
The only rule I really broke in this draft was the last one.
When you are limited to $10, your pitching needs to trend towards the sleeper and overlooked varieties. When I threw out Gil Meche, I didn't expect to get him for $1. This was fairly early on in the auction. But this is the kind of bargain that delivers the stats of a 15-game winner without the couple of extra wins, which I can easily make up in relief. I've really taken wins out of the equation altogether in Head-to-Head leagues. They are impossible to predict, and often times come in bunches or not at all. Quality starts is a much better indicator of a valuable H2H pitcher, where you're going to get more reliable stats across the board. Of course, I hadn't made the final leap to this conclusion until after my NL-only draft. Still, my instinct with Meche was solid, at least with regards to last year.
With Brett Myers and Brad Penny, I was bidding them up to cover $10, and they simply fell to me. I had both of them last year, and they served me well. Both are somewhat risky and injury-prone, but should pay off much higher than their auction value.
I opted out of all the big time relievers and battled our KC homer for Joakim Soria. B.J. Ryan was kind of a mistake. For some reason, I totally blanked at his time removed from surgery, and I would never in my right mind have taken him. But for $9, there is a lot of upside there. At this point in the auction, Tejada and Halladay got tossed out, and I bailed as I was already saving a bunch for Nick Swisher and around $8 each for some combination of J.J. Hardy, Billy Butler and my holds guys Pat Neshek, Tony Pena (ARI), Carlos Marmol, or Heath Bell with 5 slots left. Kelly Johnson went way under. Butler was under. Marmol was right there. And, thus, I had $22 left over to claim Neshek.
Some of that money could have gone to Tejada or Roy Halladay, who were both in $20 range, but I chickened out because I felt that Swisher, Butler, Hardy and my starters were going to cost me a lot more. My three starters not kept cost me $8!! So, would I rather have Halladay than Myers? Probably. But I didn't want to cost myself a shot at very tradeable OF commodities just to break my rule on AL starters.
To sum up: This is the way an auction should go. I got everyone I wanted up and down the line, and it cost me less than expected. I'm very slow on the bases, but Phillips and Sizemore plus the random odd SB should help me contend at least half the time. Nearly every starter except C and SS and Upton has a shot at 30 HRs and 80 RBI. I don't think any other team in my league can claim that.
I'll get to the results of my NL-only draft next. Then, I have some thoughts on H2H strategies that defy the popular wisdom.
Oh. And I did make the semis in my NBA league. Not too shabby.
