Week Three Picks

The Saint implosion is troubling, but more importantly, can Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson please score a touchdown? Of the consensus top-6 fantasy picks, it seems only Addai is performing like one.

Also, after what seems like two years of down production from wide receivers, scoring is way up. And my Andre Johnson pick was looking like gold up until he sprained his knee last week. Let's get back on the field healthy next week, buddy.

Dolphins (+3) over JETS - The fish stink, but the Jets have yet to show me anything positive this year. This used to be a great rivalry. Remember that Monday Night Double Overtime classic?
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants - This used to be a great rivalry, too. The least inept offense wins.
*Colts (-6) over TEXANS - No Andre means rookie Jacoby Jones is in the hot seat. Did I mention I picked up Indy's defense this week?
PACKERS (+5) over Chargers - Green Bay at home 2-0 against a shaky Phil Rivers. I see the Chargers winning by a field goal. Good game of the week contender.
*CHIEFS (-3) over Vikings- The Chiefs never lose at home, and LJ had better be in game shape by now.
EAGLES (-6) over Lions - My first instinct was to switch this pick around, so I'm leaving it alone.
PATRIOTS (-16.5) - I almost never give this many points, but Belicheater's like my girlfriend when it comes to football, they both love piling on the points.
49ers (+9) over STEELERS - Once the Steelers go up by 3, they'll just run the ball til the clock ticks off.
Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS - A good upset of the week candidate because the Ravens are atrocious and banged up.
Rams (+3.5) over BUCS - If they haven't solved the Orlando Pace problem by now, my Rams are done. Psst. Bulger: Throw the ball to Jackson in the flat when the 5-man rush comes barreling in.
BRONCOS (-3) over Jaguars - Two struggling offensive units with theoretically good rushing attacks collide in the battle of who wants to lose least.
Bengals (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS - Yes, Seattle always wins at home, but I can't think of a team more ready to dish out a pounding than the Bengals.
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns - Well, someone has to win.
*FALCONS (+3.5) over Panthers - At home in the dome against a team that was squashed by the Texans, and they're a dog?
Cowboys (+3) over BEARS - Let's see it, Romo.
SAINTS (-4) over Titans - They're marching in, and need a win.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 13-16-3

Last Week's Best Bets: 2-1
Season: 2-1

Big returns on risky investments

Most folks in my fantasy leagues will cop that to some degree that I am a waiver wire genius. I guard my higher waiver position like Tom Cruise smothers Katie Holmes, only using it to fill a desperate need, steal someone else's injury replacement, or grab a rookie call-up. In football especially, the waiver wire is like drilling for oil. It's tiring, dirty, and you're generally rewarded with heartbreak and despair. But once in a great while, you get a gusher.

I just lost Andre Johnson across the board this week with his knee injury, and it sent me into a bit of a panic because I'm already thin at receiver with Mark Clayton hurt (another guy I targeted often this season). Preseason Week 2, I thought I had drafted like a genius. Now, I feel like an idiot. By Week 6, I hope to feel somewhere in between.

But before you throw away any week as a loss because of a sub par receiving corps, take a look at your league's scoring system in regards to kick returns. If you get really lucky, you may just be able to weasel your way into a W.

Over the last two years, I've found that return guys like Dante Hall (and now Devin Hester), who also line up as a #3 or #4 receivers, can really help get you through a tough bye week situation or a desperation start.

In my big money league, Return Yards are 25 yards per point; 1 bonus point at 100 yards; 1 bonus point at 150 yards. Plus you get touchdowns. Plus, it's a point-per-reception.

Patrick Crayton should be the ultimate pickup for this role because Dallas has injuries to Terry Glenn and their number 1 punt returner. However, TO has been hoovering all the balls, and Crayton can't seem to do much except get himself hurt.

Right now on my waiver wire, Joshua Cribbs (Cle), with one catch, has outscored Demetrious Williams, Jacoby Jones, and Vincent Jackson—guys who may have been drafted in your league. Even Dante Hall has similar numbers. So if Devin Hester (Chi) is still out there, you might want to stash him on your bench, because he almost had 3 return TDs last Sunday.

There's one guy in particular, though, that just may be a temporary gold mine. Due to injuries, Glenn Holt (Cin) is now returning kicks and acting as the #3 receiver: the Chris Henry Memorial 40 oz position. Right now in my league, he's outscored Darrell Jackson, Hines Ward, and Santana Moss. He had 5 catches for 52 and TD last week on top of 177 return yards. Even if he only gets four returns in Seattle this Sunday, he could still post the same numbers as a receiver.

Now, I left him on the wire for Jason Avant (Phi) in this league, only because I think he's moving his way into McNabb favorite territory, but I've picked him up in another, and I'm starting him. So go, L'il Holt!

Week Two Picks

And I also forgot to do the Best Bets last week, so I'll start 'em here.

As it stands on the year, I faltered early, but got every game or a push starting at 4pm. So I'm on a roll. Totals for 2007: 6-8-2
Stat of the week: Home team vs. the spread to date 9-6-1. Hmm. Makes those underdog picks seem a little better.

Best Bests = *

* Packers (pick) over GIANTS - My other sleeper pick. Go Pack Go!
Jets (+10) over RAVENS - This seems really high for two teams with serious QB issues. Vegas must be expecting 2 defensive TDs from Baltimore. I don't see the Jets losing that big.
Colts (-7) over TITANS - You gotta take the Colts until they lose one.
Bengals (-6.5) over BROWNS - Ugh. All these home upsets are bothering me again.
RAMS (-3) over 49ers - My Rams lose Orlando Pace for the 2nd straight season. Not good for you Steven Jackson owners.
Falcons (+10) over JAGUARS - This is a pride bet. The Falcons need to at least cover to reward my sleeper pick. Plus the way the Titans ran all over the Jags, it's time to let Jurious Norwood loose.
STEELERS (-9.5) over Bills - Are Santonio Holmes and Big Ben for real? We're about to find out.
* Saints (-3.5) over BUCS - This seems way too low to me.
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Texans - This is another scary take the home team bet. I wouldn't touch this action, except maybe in a teaser.
LIONS (-3) over Vikings - The Vikings had no offense at home last week, and this is a push?
* Cowboys (-3.5) over DOLPHINS - This seems low as well.
Seahawks (-3) over CARDINALS - If I hadn't watched last Monday's game, I'd be all over the Cards. This is already a must win for them.
Chiefs (+12) over BEARS - This very well could be one of those 9-6 snoozefests, a blowout, or a shocking upset. As much as I was disappointed with the Chiefs last week, I don't trust Benson and Grossman one iota. Plus I've got LJ, and I need a respectable game out of him.
BRONCOS (-10) over Raiders - I thought about going the other way here and then laughed.
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Chargers - Should be a great game. The Patriots can be scored upon, so let's hope the line pans out.
EAGLES (-6.5) over Redskins - Eagles come home after a bad road loss, and the Redskins look like a mess. Let's hope for a shootout.

Season Predictions

These are late, but as you will see, I didn't retro anything in light of injuries or results from Week 1. Basically, Simmons over there at ESPN had the exact same ideas that I had. All my sleepers were publicized in his fantasy preview, and I totally bought into the Falcons with Petrino at the helm. But all these picks had to be made for my "Season Pool," and were emailed prior to last Thursday's kickoff.

*= wildcard
AFC
East
Patriots 12-4
Jets 7-9
Bills 6-10
Dolphins 4-12

North
Bengals 11-5
Ravens 10-6*
Steelers 9-7
Browns 5-11

South
Colts 12-4
Jaguars 10-6
Titans 7-9
Texans 6-10

West
Chargers 11-5
Broncos 10-6 *
Chiefs 7-9
Raiders 6-10

NFC
East
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6*
Giants 7-9
Redskins 7-9

North
Packers 10-6
Bears 9-7
Lions 7-9
Vikings 4-12

South
Saints 12-4
Falcons 9-7*
Panthers 6-10
Bucs 6-10

West
Seahawks 9-7
Rams 9-7
Cardinals 5-11
49ers 4-12

AFC Championship: Patriots defeat Chargers
NFC Championship: Cowboys defeat Saints

Superbowl: Cowboys defeat Patriots 24-21

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Steven Jackson
Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman
Coach of the Year: Bobby Petrino
Comeback Player of the Year: Joey Harrington
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson

At least my rookie pick looks good.

Week One Results

Wow, we had some really awful games this week, and a couple of last minute miracles. And I was particularly bad early, too, but I rallied to get all the late Sunday and Monday games.

2007 totals: 6-8-2

Week One Picks

Yeah, I missed Thursday's game, so to be fair, we'll call it a loss.

NO over Indy - Although I never would have picked it that way.

Broncos (-3) over BILLS
Chiefs (+3) over TEXANS (two roads wins already? not a good start)
Steelers (-4.5) over BROWNS (ok, this is getting ridiculous)
REDSKINS (-3) over Dolphins (ahh, finally, I pick a home team)
Eagles (-3) over PACKERS (crap)
JAGUARS (-6.5) over Titans
JETS (+6.5) over Patriots
Falcons (+3) over VIKINGS (Simmons stole my sleepers, now he steals my sleeper team)
RAMS (-1) over Panthers
CHARGERS (-6) over Bears
Lions (+2) over RAIDERS
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Bucs
COWBOYS (-6) over Giants
BENGALS (-2.5) over Ravens
Cardinals (+3) over 49ers