World Series and MNF

These are the things that may happen simultaneously at my local bar on Monday night. If the Rockies can win one damn game.

I've been reading lots of basketball info in hasty preparation for my keeper league. I must admit that I have ignored my NBA team, mainly because I have had lots of injury adversity across my important football leagues. The other thing is that everyone has draft prep up on the Web. And I'm not particularly sure I can offer anything radically different. In this fantasy commodity world, there are lots of people as smart and less smart than me getting paid lots of dough to say that Gerald Wallace is a high-risk, high-reward player. I still may take him with the 2.1 pick. Also, everyone has a "strategy" for any particular league. So, Give Me the Rock has all the requisite knowledge you need, and links to 82Games and Dropping Dimes strategies to boot. I have a few theories about H2H that probably differ from other folks, and I'll post a little about that after my draft. I'm also doing a Roto league for the first time on Yahoo, which should be fun. I need to recap that draft, because it's pretty funny. I think I may live blog from my local on Tuesday since we have 6 TVs.

Anyway, on to the picks.


GIANTS (London) (-9.5) over Miami – This line seems way high for a neutral field game, but Miami has absolutely zero offense right now. Seems like a good opposite pick.
JETS (-3) over Bills – Good for a push at at worst. If you have Thomas Jones, you really should be worried about his ability to lead you into the postseason .
*RAMS (+3) over Browns – Bulger and SJax are back. That's all we really need to know. When was the last time the Browns were a road favorite? Apparently 10-1-06. And 2002 before that.
Lions (+5) over BEARS – I really hate the Bears this year. Have from the beginning. I need to
check, but I think the time I picked them to cover I always felt queasy about it. The Bears always win this one, but I think this is the week.
*Colts (-6.5) over PANTHERS – The extra point on the spread isn't really troubling here because we're not talking 3-4 or 10-11 here. The Colts should easily win by more than a TD, even with Harrison out.
TITANS (-7.5) over Raiders – This is purely a defensive pick. As the Titans have no offense.
Eagles (-1) over VIKINGS – I have McNabb, and this is a must-win for me. Nuff Said.
BENGALS (+3.5) over Steelers – The road team always wins this game, thus I'm taking the home team. Because if the Bengals can't find the fire to win this game, it's time to rebuild.
Texans (+9.5) over CHARGERS – With all the distractions in SoCal, are they really gonna pile it on?
BUCS (-3.5) over Jags – The one-point movement towards the Jags makes this attractive.
*Saints (-2.5) over 49ERS Alex Smith may be healthy and that hasn't affected the line?
PATRIOTS (-16.5) over Redskins – I didn't believe last week, so I'm back.
Packers (+3) over BRONCOS – As the line moves drastically against the Packers, I should stay away, but let's hope for a shoot-out, as I'm starting Marshall and Stokely.


Last Week: 7-7
Season: 45-51-7

Last Week's Best Bets: 0-0
Season: 6-6

Quickie Week 7

I'm off to Omaha in 6 hours for a wedding, but I'm still thinking fantasy. A few quick picks. Drew Brees. Heath Evans. Lance Moore. Brandon Marshall. I'm worried about : Ronnie Brown. Vincent Jackson. Chris Chambers. Falcons.

I will also be using my prodigious airplane time to work on my fantasy basketball strategy. More of that to come.

GIANTS (-9) over 49ers
BENGALS (-6) over JETS
Cardinals (+8.5) over REDSKINS
SAINTS (-9) over Falcons
Ravens (-3) over BILLS
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Vikings
DOLPHINS (+16.5) over Patriots
LIONS (-2.5) over Bucs
Titans (-1.5) over TEXANS
Chiefs (+2.5) over RAIDERS
EAGLES (-5) over Bears
Rams (+9) over SEAHAWKS
Steelers (-3.5) over BRONCOS
Colts (-3) over JAGUARS

Last Week: 3-9-1
Last Week: 7-7-0
Season: 38-44-7

Last Week's Best Bets: 1-2
Season: 6-6

Week Six Picks

A bunch of dogs beat the spread, but there was no craziness like there was in Week Four. We lost yet more players to season-ending injuries, and Dallas took a crazy bounce and two 53-yard field goals to squeak by Buffalo. And thanks to Romo's six turnovers, the Dorkette beat me in our His-'n'-Her Fantasy League for the third straight time. Grrr.

The thumb is still slightly broken, so typing is kind of a pain.

*Eagles (-3) over JETS - I think the Birds have never lost to the the Jets, and I can't see that changing. Mr. Overrated is starting for me in the big money league, so I expect nothing less than three TDs. And if Pennington continues to stink, Giants Stadium may erupt into a verse of The Clemens Song by halftime.
Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS - This is the kind of game the Chiefs always won. Until herm Edwards arrived.
Texans (+6.5) over JAGUARS - The Jags are like a better Tennessee. They have a few playmakers, their defense is above average, and they win by the skin of their teeth. I'm not spotting them a touchdown just yet.
Dolphins (+4.5) over BROWNS - I love the opening line at 5.5, but I'll stick with the Phish here. We've got a completely unpredictable QB change and the league's best back (Wow! That's hard to write with a straight face.) against a very pedestrian team with a backup RB. Could be a field goal that wins this game either way.
BEARS (-5.5) over Vikings - Money's moving towards the Vikes as well. Neither team really scores on offense, but throw in some special teams scores for the Bears. No one will be watching this snoozefest.
*Rams (+9.5) over RAVENS - My Rams nearly upset Arizona, and these Ravens are susceptible to the long ball. On the offensive side, the Ravens are frankly putrid. I'll take the points.
BUCS (-3) over Titans - This looks like a push.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Redskins - That .5 point burned me last week, but I'll put my faith in a rebound from the Bear disaster.
*CARDINALS (-4) over Panthers - Vinny may start. Time to pick up that Zona defense.
COWBOYS (+5.5) over Patriots - The cheerleader squad had a big gulp on Monday, but since so much money is moving to the Patriots, I fee obliged to go the other way.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Raiders - LT finally hits paydirt. I can feel it.
Saints (+6.5) over SEAHAWKS - They can't lose every game, right? Plus I'm trying to trade for Brees.
FALCONS (+3) over Giants - This is turning into a joke, but why the hell not?

Last Week: 7-7-0
Season: 35-35-6

Last Week's Best Bets: 1-2
Season: 5-4

Week Five Picks

Finally, I have a banner week, bringing me to a respectable .500 on the season. We've got tons of injuries, both to myself and the rest of the NFL, so really anything could happen this week, and it wouldn't surprise me. Lots of "stay away" games this week, and Best Bets are hard to come by.

GIANTS (-3.5) over JETS - Hey, they're both at home, so who's foolin' who. Inevitably, whichever way I go here, I'm going to lose, and with the line bumping up to 3.5 it takes away a likely push. But didn't Tynes miss a bunch of kicks recently? So, hopefully the Gints score a late TD to win by 4.
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers - Both of these stink right now, but coming off the Bye against a David Carr-led Panthers, the Saints just gotta win by 3 here.
*CHIEFS (+2) over Jaguars - This is another tough one, but the once metaphysically certitude of the AFC West went out the window, I gotta like the Chiefs to show some spunk here.
Lions (+3.5) over REDSKINS - Moss may be out and Portis looks 75%, so lets see Kitna do some damage in D.C.
Dolphins (+5) over TEXANS - Houston has no weapons. Let me repeat that: Houston has no weapons. And much maligned Ronnie Brown has a real possibility to tie Sweetness for a record 200 combined yards in 3 consecutive games.
Falcons (+8.5) over TITANS - Didn't I jump off this bandwagon weeks ago? Titans come off the bye, but Harrington is getting better and better.
STEELERS (-6) over Seahawks - Steelers likely lose Ward again, but are they really going to lose to the whiny Hawks in this Superbowl rematch?
PATRIOTS (-16.5) over Browns - Keep running it up, Belichick.
*Cardinals (-3.5) over RAMS - Didn't AZ just beat Pittsburgh? Sure there's no Boldin, but the Rams are starting Frerotte and Leonard.
Bucs (+9.5) over COLTS - Manning is completely content to just win, and the Bucs just might hang in this thing before finally losing.
*Chargers (+1) over BRONCOS - This is a must must must win for San Diego. LT will throw a TD to himself if he has to to win this game.
49ERS (+3.5) over Ravens - You must be completely insane to put any money on this game. If Trent Dilfer is bad enough, but the Ravens are God awful. This seems like a slam dunk for Baltimore, so I'm going the other way.
PACKERS (-3) over Bears - That half-point of movement downwards is just what we like, but the Pack is at home and seem charmed so far - as long as they keep the ball in the air.
Cowboys (-10) over BILLS - This seems way too low. And Romo owes TO 3 TDs from last week.

Last Week: 9-5-0
Season: 28-28-6

Last Week's Best Bets: 0-0
Season: 4-2

Time to grab Selvin Young--Stat

Note the typo:

Broncos running back Travis Henry sues NFL to withold drug test results

BY ANTHONY M. DESTEFANO 8:01 PM EDT, October 4, 2007

Denver Broncos running back Travis Henry is embroiled in a lawsuit to keep the NFL from using the results of a drug test to suspend him, according to court papers filed in Brooklyn federal court.

Better late than never

So I had a little accident last weekend, which prevented me from getting Week 4 up in time. Now that I can type again, I'll have Week 5 up tomorrow. So quickly, Week 4, no commmentary.

Jets (-3.5) over BILLS
Eagles (-3) over GIANTS
DOLPHINS (-4) over Raiders
FALCONS (+3) over Texans
Ravens (-4) over BROWNS
LIONS (+3) over Bears
Packers (-1.5) over VIKINGS
COWBOYS (-13) over Rams
Bucs (+3) over PANTHERS
Seahawks (-2) over 49ERS
CARDINALS (+6) over Steelers
Chiefs (+11.5) over CHARGERS
COLTS (-9.5) over Broncos
BENGALS (+7) over Patriots

Last Week: 6-7-3
Season: 19-23-6

Last Week's Best Bets: 2-1
Season: 4-2

Week Three Picks

The Saint implosion is troubling, but more importantly, can Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson please score a touchdown? Of the consensus top-6 fantasy picks, it seems only Addai is performing like one.

Also, after what seems like two years of down production from wide receivers, scoring is way up. And my Andre Johnson pick was looking like gold up until he sprained his knee last week. Let's get back on the field healthy next week, buddy.

Dolphins (+3) over JETS - The fish stink, but the Jets have yet to show me anything positive this year. This used to be a great rivalry. Remember that Monday Night Double Overtime classic?
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Giants - This used to be a great rivalry, too. The least inept offense wins.
*Colts (-6) over TEXANS - No Andre means rookie Jacoby Jones is in the hot seat. Did I mention I picked up Indy's defense this week?
PACKERS (+5) over Chargers - Green Bay at home 2-0 against a shaky Phil Rivers. I see the Chargers winning by a field goal. Good game of the week contender.
*CHIEFS (-3) over Vikings- The Chiefs never lose at home, and LJ had better be in game shape by now.
EAGLES (-6) over Lions - My first instinct was to switch this pick around, so I'm leaving it alone.
PATRIOTS (-16.5) - I almost never give this many points, but Belicheater's like my girlfriend when it comes to football, they both love piling on the points.
49ers (+9) over STEELERS - Once the Steelers go up by 3, they'll just run the ball til the clock ticks off.
Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS - A good upset of the week candidate because the Ravens are atrocious and banged up.
Rams (+3.5) over BUCS - If they haven't solved the Orlando Pace problem by now, my Rams are done. Psst. Bulger: Throw the ball to Jackson in the flat when the 5-man rush comes barreling in.
BRONCOS (-3) over Jaguars - Two struggling offensive units with theoretically good rushing attacks collide in the battle of who wants to lose least.
Bengals (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS - Yes, Seattle always wins at home, but I can't think of a team more ready to dish out a pounding than the Bengals.
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns - Well, someone has to win.
*FALCONS (+3.5) over Panthers - At home in the dome against a team that was squashed by the Texans, and they're a dog?
Cowboys (+3) over BEARS - Let's see it, Romo.
SAINTS (-4) over Titans - They're marching in, and need a win.

Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 13-16-3

Last Week's Best Bets: 2-1
Season: 2-1

Big returns on risky investments

Most folks in my fantasy leagues will cop that to some degree that I am a waiver wire genius. I guard my higher waiver position like Tom Cruise smothers Katie Holmes, only using it to fill a desperate need, steal someone else's injury replacement, or grab a rookie call-up. In football especially, the waiver wire is like drilling for oil. It's tiring, dirty, and you're generally rewarded with heartbreak and despair. But once in a great while, you get a gusher.

I just lost Andre Johnson across the board this week with his knee injury, and it sent me into a bit of a panic because I'm already thin at receiver with Mark Clayton hurt (another guy I targeted often this season). Preseason Week 2, I thought I had drafted like a genius. Now, I feel like an idiot. By Week 6, I hope to feel somewhere in between.

But before you throw away any week as a loss because of a sub par receiving corps, take a look at your league's scoring system in regards to kick returns. If you get really lucky, you may just be able to weasel your way into a W.

Over the last two years, I've found that return guys like Dante Hall (and now Devin Hester), who also line up as a #3 or #4 receivers, can really help get you through a tough bye week situation or a desperation start.

In my big money league, Return Yards are 25 yards per point; 1 bonus point at 100 yards; 1 bonus point at 150 yards. Plus you get touchdowns. Plus, it's a point-per-reception.

Patrick Crayton should be the ultimate pickup for this role because Dallas has injuries to Terry Glenn and their number 1 punt returner. However, TO has been hoovering all the balls, and Crayton can't seem to do much except get himself hurt.

Right now on my waiver wire, Joshua Cribbs (Cle), with one catch, has outscored Demetrious Williams, Jacoby Jones, and Vincent Jackson—guys who may have been drafted in your league. Even Dante Hall has similar numbers. So if Devin Hester (Chi) is still out there, you might want to stash him on your bench, because he almost had 3 return TDs last Sunday.

There's one guy in particular, though, that just may be a temporary gold mine. Due to injuries, Glenn Holt (Cin) is now returning kicks and acting as the #3 receiver: the Chris Henry Memorial 40 oz position. Right now in my league, he's outscored Darrell Jackson, Hines Ward, and Santana Moss. He had 5 catches for 52 and TD last week on top of 177 return yards. Even if he only gets four returns in Seattle this Sunday, he could still post the same numbers as a receiver.

Now, I left him on the wire for Jason Avant (Phi) in this league, only because I think he's moving his way into McNabb favorite territory, but I've picked him up in another, and I'm starting him. So go, L'il Holt!

Week Two Picks

And I also forgot to do the Best Bets last week, so I'll start 'em here.

As it stands on the year, I faltered early, but got every game or a push starting at 4pm. So I'm on a roll. Totals for 2007: 6-8-2
Stat of the week: Home team vs. the spread to date 9-6-1. Hmm. Makes those underdog picks seem a little better.

Best Bests = *

* Packers (pick) over GIANTS - My other sleeper pick. Go Pack Go!
Jets (+10) over RAVENS - This seems really high for two teams with serious QB issues. Vegas must be expecting 2 defensive TDs from Baltimore. I don't see the Jets losing that big.
Colts (-7) over TITANS - You gotta take the Colts until they lose one.
Bengals (-6.5) over BROWNS - Ugh. All these home upsets are bothering me again.
RAMS (-3) over 49ers - My Rams lose Orlando Pace for the 2nd straight season. Not good for you Steven Jackson owners.
Falcons (+10) over JAGUARS - This is a pride bet. The Falcons need to at least cover to reward my sleeper pick. Plus the way the Titans ran all over the Jags, it's time to let Jurious Norwood loose.
STEELERS (-9.5) over Bills - Are Santonio Holmes and Big Ben for real? We're about to find out.
* Saints (-3.5) over BUCS - This seems way too low to me.
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Texans - This is another scary take the home team bet. I wouldn't touch this action, except maybe in a teaser.
LIONS (-3) over Vikings - The Vikings had no offense at home last week, and this is a push?
* Cowboys (-3.5) over DOLPHINS - This seems low as well.
Seahawks (-3) over CARDINALS - If I hadn't watched last Monday's game, I'd be all over the Cards. This is already a must win for them.
Chiefs (+12) over BEARS - This very well could be one of those 9-6 snoozefests, a blowout, or a shocking upset. As much as I was disappointed with the Chiefs last week, I don't trust Benson and Grossman one iota. Plus I've got LJ, and I need a respectable game out of him.
BRONCOS (-10) over Raiders - I thought about going the other way here and then laughed.
PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Chargers - Should be a great game. The Patriots can be scored upon, so let's hope the line pans out.
EAGLES (-6.5) over Redskins - Eagles come home after a bad road loss, and the Redskins look like a mess. Let's hope for a shootout.

Season Predictions

These are late, but as you will see, I didn't retro anything in light of injuries or results from Week 1. Basically, Simmons over there at ESPN had the exact same ideas that I had. All my sleepers were publicized in his fantasy preview, and I totally bought into the Falcons with Petrino at the helm. But all these picks had to be made for my "Season Pool," and were emailed prior to last Thursday's kickoff.

*= wildcard
AFC
East
Patriots 12-4
Jets 7-9
Bills 6-10
Dolphins 4-12

North
Bengals 11-5
Ravens 10-6*
Steelers 9-7
Browns 5-11

South
Colts 12-4
Jaguars 10-6
Titans 7-9
Texans 6-10

West
Chargers 11-5
Broncos 10-6 *
Chiefs 7-9
Raiders 6-10

NFC
East
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6*
Giants 7-9
Redskins 7-9

North
Packers 10-6
Bears 9-7
Lions 7-9
Vikings 4-12

South
Saints 12-4
Falcons 9-7*
Panthers 6-10
Bucs 6-10

West
Seahawks 9-7
Rams 9-7
Cardinals 5-11
49ers 4-12

AFC Championship: Patriots defeat Chargers
NFC Championship: Cowboys defeat Saints

Superbowl: Cowboys defeat Patriots 24-21

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Steven Jackson
Defensive Player of the Year: Shawne Merriman
Coach of the Year: Bobby Petrino
Comeback Player of the Year: Joey Harrington
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson

At least my rookie pick looks good.

Week One Results

Wow, we had some really awful games this week, and a couple of last minute miracles. And I was particularly bad early, too, but I rallied to get all the late Sunday and Monday games.

2007 totals: 6-8-2

Week One Picks

Yeah, I missed Thursday's game, so to be fair, we'll call it a loss.

NO over Indy - Although I never would have picked it that way.

Broncos (-3) over BILLS
Chiefs (+3) over TEXANS (two roads wins already? not a good start)
Steelers (-4.5) over BROWNS (ok, this is getting ridiculous)
REDSKINS (-3) over Dolphins (ahh, finally, I pick a home team)
Eagles (-3) over PACKERS (crap)
JAGUARS (-6.5) over Titans
JETS (+6.5) over Patriots
Falcons (+3) over VIKINGS (Simmons stole my sleepers, now he steals my sleeper team)
RAMS (-1) over Panthers
CHARGERS (-6) over Bears
Lions (+2) over RAIDERS
SEAHAWKS (-6) over Bucs
COWBOYS (-6) over Giants
BENGALS (-2.5) over Ravens
Cardinals (+3) over 49ers

How in the world did this happen?

Final Day of NBA 2006-207

And I'm trying not to jinx my chances of a second championship by revealing some good fortune that's come my way this past week. Needless to say, I do have a lead going into the final games tonight, and I hope to have a celebratory post with the craziest roster moves you have ever seen tomorrow.

Then, on to fixing my woeful baseball team.

By the skin of my teeth

Well, my instincts were right about all my pickups, but Yao and T-Mac actually playing nearly threw off my whole strategy. Down by 1 DREB, 12 3s and 2 BLKs, I was sitting in front of the computer at 8:58 mulling over my options: 1) Gamble that Yao and T-Mac play and if they do I will win boards and probably blocks without any other players 2) Bench them and play Bibby, Luther Head, and Justin Williams and roll the dice against Rafer Alston's numbers for my opponent 3) play all of them as insurance.

Which what I did. Except that I nearly had a heart attack when I was suddenly only 7 TOs and 9 PFs ahead in the first half. I basically was on the verge of taking REBs and BLKs and giving up TOs and PFs and losing. Rafer Alston didn't help out my cause with a very modest 1 TO and 1 PF performance. So my insurance was to somehow shoot 12 3s between these guys to knock a point off the tally with a tie, which I did. Until Alston hit his single 3 late in the game. Needless to say, it was a stressful heartbreaking evening, but my boys tightened up on the TOs, gave up PFs and gave me a 6-5 win. Now, the waiver wire hunting really begins...

Final stand

Without AK-47 or Chandler, I finally gave up the lead in blocks and D boards. Now, going into the final day, I need to win back D Boards, Blocks or 3s to make the finals. And if I do, I'm dead in the water.I managed a net -13 in D boards, -9 in 3s and -12 in blocks yesterday. Not good. So I dropped Gadzuric, Chandler, AK-47, and Jason Hart for Shelden Williams, Justin Williams, Luther Head, and Tyrus Thomas (who's iffy with the flu). If you're playing any of these guys, your team is trouble, too. The opponent has LBJ, Rafer Alston, Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince going today, so I'm loading up on cheap boards and blocks, then if by a miracle T-Mac and/or Yao play (I'll give that a .5% chance), I can take boards and/or blocks hopefully without surrendering TOs, or take both and give up TOs.

Any way you slice it, this has been a miserable finish to a fairly impressive managerial effort on my part. Considering injuries on a similarly massive scale completely derailed my baseball team last season, I'm getting pretty sick of this. Now, as a poker player, I understand that no one wants to hear a bad beat story. Tough.

Mother, I can feel the soil falling over my head

Sorry for getting all Morrissey, but there's bad luck and then there's Biblical luck. Having developed serious injuries to five starters this week, Friday followed up with another kick in the belly as Yao sat due to back spasms (DNP), AK-47 left the game after 14 minutes with a sprained thumb and Mike Bibby spent 28 minutes on the bench going 0-4 from the field. Here's the tally.

While I had a great day from behind the arc, tieing in treys, due to six games lost this week from Yao, Chandler and Jefferson, my 30 D rebound advantage has shrunk to 10 in two days. Right now, I'm going to have to win TOs or 3s—or both—to have any chance of making the finals.

Realistically, I'm going to count T-Mac and Yao out for the season as the Rockets currently can't improve or worsen their playoff position. New Orleans needs Chandler, and they need him in the next two games against the Nuggets and the Clippers, who are both ahead of them in the playoff race. If Chandler doesn't play tonight, they might as well shut him down and give up.

So late night it comes down to possibly dropping AK, Chandler, Granger and Okur for Sunday substitutions. At best, if I make the finals, at least I'm in the money, but if I don't, then I'm going to have a hard time competing to break even by winning third place.

In slightly better news, Cub Rich Hill pitched 1-hit ball over 7 innings yesterday to earn my squad it's first pitching W of the season. Unfortunately, my team batting average has dipped below .22o, which is pretty amazing considering I have Chipper and Andruw Jones, Travis Hafner, and Ryan Howard.

Thank God there's no crying in fantasy sports because I'd be needing a hanky right now.

Hanging in there

Day 4 of the playoffs, and I've already had to start mortgaging the future.

I thought long and hard about next season before coming to the realization that I'm stuck with T-Mac for another year. Since he's on the Can't-Cut list, Al Jefferson had to go to make room for...gulp...Dan Gadzuric. Oh, the indignity. So much for starting next year with two premier big men.

I'm going to hold Chandler through the weekend and hopefully into the finals, then it's rotating waiver wire the rest of the way.

Nice to see Andy Pettitte get rocked yesterday, which means my pitching officially stinks, as Tony Kornheiser would say.

NBA playoffs, this game is killing me

I managed to recover a bit to take a 6-5 edge last night.


Of course, that was before I opened the box scores to see this:

Tyson Chandler – left game with toe injury
Tracy McGrady – left game with back spasms
Delonte West – left game with sprained ankle
Al Jefferson – DNP (benched him due to early reports about his knee)

I just managed to catch the news about Josh Childress being shut down on Tuesday in time to scoop up Jason Hart, who was to be my Bibby fill-in in case he quits once the Kings are out of it.

Nothing goes down sweeter than possibly losing a fifth of your squad two days into the semifinals.

Well, with the Celtics needing to tank anyway, I cut West and grabbed Charlotte F Walter Hermann, who came out of the bowels of the Bobcats to take Rookie honors last week.

My only saving grace is that my opponent managed to leave three guys on the bench for whatever reason. And he's got two hurt Bucks: Mo Williams and Redd

There is a good chance that West and Jefferson may be done. And Chandler may not be far behind especially if the Hornets drop to three games back in the standings.

Good thing I have 24 moves left under the cap, because I may be going day-to-day on the waiver wire pretty soon.

Gulp.

What a difference a day makes

Marcus Camby's lines for Tuesday and Sunday:

Game By Game Stats

Date	Opponent	MIN	FGM-A	FTM-A	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Apr 3	@ LAL	43	8-14	5-6	20	2	1	6	2	3	21
Apr 1	@ SEA	36	3-5	5-6	12	3	2	0	2	2	11

Thank goodness my friend O is on his honeymoon right now, because I would be rather upset to see the one block I needed on Sunday coming in droves two days later. Especially when my guy was playing the lowly Sonics.

But isn't this why we play fantasy? For the soul-crushing heartache of getting bounced from the playoffs because your second-round pick couldn't stick his mitt in front of the likes of Earl Watson, Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison? Once?

After Round 2, Day 1, your hero holds a 5-6 deficit in the quest for glory. I did, however, have four guys going to my opponent's eight, and I still managed to keep even in boards and blocks and hold the percentages. Need lots of 3s, Assists and Steals from my guards tonight.

Stupid Marcus Camby and the 4-H Club

Since Marcus Camby couldn't record a single block on Sunday to break a 5-5 first-round tie, I now have to face a team with LeBron, Duncan, Michael Redd, and Carmelo in the second round. I'm feeling a bit like Isiah before the Dallas game two weeks ago, but I'd already punted scoring anyway, so let's go percentages and defense. It's what got me here. Believe it or not, I still haven't dropped AK-47. I've had the window up a dozen times, but for some reason I just can't quit 'im, especially after one of his patented 8-point, 2-steal, 4-block nights.

I've read from Bill Simmons that his auction takes upwards of 10 hours. They must take a lot of breaks. The Handsome Gents' third auction with 14 managers filling an average of 19 roster spots took a tidy seven hours to complete even with Skype voice/chat participants in LA, Maine, South Beach, Atlanta, and London. Let me say that being the chattist/auctioneer/secretary makes it pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty dang doodle difficult to focus on building your own team. With essentially zero opportunity to read my sheets and flip the Baseball Prospectus during bidding, I'm surprised my team is as solid as I'm deluded to believe that it is. Especially if you like mediocre base stealing, tons of AL starters, and a pen built on one 37-year-old Japanese closer along with a Pujols victim who had one of the most disastrous springs on record.

Here's my money well spent. I kept Hafner, Howard, Hermida, and Rich Hill (below). The NY Post's Mr. Aitch would be proud.



1B Ryan Howard PHI 34
2B Brandon Philips CIN 9
SS Julio Lugo BOS 20
3B Chipper Jones ATL 13
C Mike Napoli ANA 3
OF Jeremy Hermida FLA 4
OF Andruw Jones ATL 36
OF Brad Hawpe COL 12
UH Travis Hafner CLE 30
Bench Corey Hart MIL 1
SP Rich Hill CHC 12
SP Andy Pettite NYY 10
RP Ted Saito LAD 18
RP Brad Lidge HOU 19
P Scott Linebrink SD 8
P AJ Burnett TOR 8
P Juan Rincon MIN 6
Bench Mike Gonzalez ATL 6
Bench Carl Pavano NYY 2
Bench Daniel Cabrera BAL 1
Bench Mark Prior CHC 1

With Hermida on the DL, I added Morgan Ensberg, who had a ridiculous .398 OBP or something close to it, despite batting .230. He should make for nice Chipper insurance. Prior's probably next to go, but I'll scout the waiver wire in a week or so.

Week 20 of 21

Well, my basketball team has really soared onwards and upwards with the return of Yao Ming. And with Yao back, I am certain that I will never, ever win TOs or PFs, but I'll certainly embrace my newfound competitiveness in steals and 3s. We have one week to go in the regular season, and I have moved into sole possession of second place (!), after being percentage points behind for several weeks. I also clinched a playoff berth this week, which is awesome. Remember the jerk-off in first place? He and I were both in the lottery this year, and we have a chance to finish 1-2 – if I can hold on to my 4-game lead. Proof that the system works.

Since the second matchup of the new year, I have gone 10-1, which goes to show that crunching numbers midway through the season can really create positive results, providing you have a true understanding of your team's strengths and weaknesses. Of course, the one loss way back to the guy in first, as stated previously is troubling. Barring serious injury to his team, or an abundance of players on the low side of games played, I don't see how he can lose.

My dilemma today, the trading deadline, is what to do with AK47. All I really need him to do is put up .500% shooting, 4 boards, 2 steals, and 2 blocks, and he's really disappointing me with his lack of consistency. I'm not sure I can trade him, and I really want to outright drop him when he lays an egg every other game, but that in-between game keeps his averages at an acceptable level. I never want to root against any player, especially when he used to be such a fantasy beast, but AK, maybe the best thing for both of us would be for that ankle injury last night to knock you out for a while, so I could justify picking up Mikki Moore or Big Z, who just hit the waiver wire. Well, according to Rotoworld, he's the dreaded Game Time Decision for Friday. Sigh.

Here's the current roster, which hasn't changed much except for a swap of Andrew Bynum for Brian Cook. Kwame Brown's return seems to have made both centers irrelevant, so with Odom out, Cook seemed like a decent replacement. I guess I could drop Cook for Moore and AK for Big Z, but I kind of like getting the added 3 per-game with Cook. I'm feeling fluid with this setup. And I have plenty of moves under the cap of 40 to rotate scrubs in should I make the championship.

Looks like the keeper situation has changed with the emergence of Al Jefferson, however. I think I can let McGrady go and keep Yao and Al and have two of the premier big men in the NBA for several years.

Thankfully, the onset of March means that it's almost baseball season. Like my atrocious basketball team of 2006, my baseball team was nearly as putrid. Some of the same problems applied. Tons of injuries. I mean like 6 guys at once, and It all went downhill with my $20 Gagne. Thankfully, I wound up with Ryan Howard and Travis Hafner as my two solid keepers. My pitching was so bad, that I decided to go with upside and keep Rich Hill over Javy Vasquez or Tim Hudson. Add in Jeremy Hermida as my second-year rookie at 1/2-price, and I've got a very mediocre start. I already tried to move Hafner for Santana (Johan, not Ervin) and was denied, so my big money will probably go towards one big-time starter and another big-time home run hitter of the Andruw Jones type. With the auction coming up in a week, our next post will be of the America's Pasttime variety, with a note on how my playoff run is going. And it'll be funnier, er, funny.

As for now, adios, Cap.

On winning the big one...Peyton Manning

Before Superbowl Sunday, Mike and the Mad Dog were making their picks and spent quite a bit of time, as they had all playoffs, claiming that Manning "can't win the big one." That is, until he won the big one. From the beginning of this postseason, I had felt that this was Manning's year. Hell, I'd even picked the Colts to win during preseason. Lots of talk was made in advance of the Patriots/Colts game about Brady and the Pats and nemeses and other garbage. But once the Colts made it to the Superbowl, comments turned to the common criticism of "Can he win the big game?" No one ever seems to say, "he's due" in the NFL. And why is that?

Much of the talk of postseason choking by Manning has always seemed like hooey to me. Since football has such a small statistical sample compared to other sports, it appears as if some writers chose to gravitate towards "choking" as a player trend as opposed to "being statistically more likely to win" following a period of losing. Mike and the Mad Dog made similar comments about Kenny Rogers when the Tigers faced the Yankees, and we know how that turned out. But Rogers has faced the Yankees 35 times going 5-7. That's a fairly good sized sample.

Football, however, is extremely difficult to analyze statistically because there are so many factors at play: 11 rotating men on a team, weather, injuries, and even bad luck. However, Peyton Manning has been in the top 7 in completions, yards, and TDs every season of his career. Every Season. So, if someone said, "Do you think a team with the league's statistically best QB that has won 12 or more games in the regular season for 4 years running is a good bet to win the Superbowl?" I think I'd be inclined to agree every year, no matter who was behind center. Manning himself was 2-0 against the Bears, but only 1-0 against coach Lovie Smith and had never played opposite Grossman. Essentially, history meant absolutely nothing in this Superbowl. Manning's "choke" status was completely irrelevant. But many people felt that his "just getting there" was a sign of impending victory. A roundabout way of saying "he's due," but with the caveat that "he wasn't due 2 weeks earlier, but now that he's there, he must be due."

Until this year, Manning was 3-6 in the postseason, and 3 of those losses were by a TD or less. And yes, 2 of those losses were to Tom Brady and the Patriots. After this postseason, his record goes to 7-6. From a bum, to the anti-Marino in just four games. And winning those four games without being a 1 or 2 seed is a tough thing to do, no doubt. The Steelers did it the harder way last year, mostly on the road.

Someone asked me recently who I thought the best QB of all time was, and my immediate reaction to that is always a) I didn't really start watching football until college, so the Montana, Young, Elway, Aikman era is really my touchstone, and b) you're always biased to the guys you see play in your lifetime. At the age of roughly 30, Manning holds the single-season TD record and most 4,000-yard passing seasons. Dan Marino was done at 38, so if we give Manning 8 more seasons playing at near his current level, he would beat Marino's yardage record and threaten his TD totals. Even if he doesn't win another Superbowl, he has a good chance to go down as the most statistically valuable quarterback of the modern era. Check out this post from Pro Football Reference. Given a choice of any of the above, I would take Manning over any of them.

My NBA Fantasy Season so far, part II

Time for the twenty-day checkup.

First of all, in typical fashion, Stoudamire laid a big egg for three games right off the bat, so I dropped him the day before he returned to form. However, I dropped him for Delonte West, so I can't be too upset about that.

Childress, Chandler, TMac, and Jefferson have really stepped up for me in the last three weeks. I was in the midst of a two-week win streak at the time of my team realignment. I continued on to two more decisive wins, moving up into fourth place. That is, until I matched up against number-one guy last week, who sneaked out a 7-4 win after I had dominated him for six days. A few less DNPs and a Yao Ming, and I might've had a chance. I'm really worried about him in the long run, though, because his team (let's call him El Sucko) matches up the best against my wacko strategy.

El Sucko caught a lot of crap for taking Nash and Kidd with his first two picks, which turned out to be genius, because his keepers, KG and Vinsanity, are going off the charts this season. In our leagues, I find that the team that locks up Assists and Steals is usually in good shape to win. It means you've got a lot of guards who hopefully can shoot halfway decently, and you might have that rare big man, like KG, who helps with all the defensive stats. Throw in Deron Williams (yet another PG) a specialist like Sam Dalembert, a smart early pickup in Kevin Martin, and a lucky waiver claim for Igoudala (one ahead of mine) and you've got five of the top 25 performers by average in the league, plus some good role players. I figured Sucko's roster scag would be his undoing, but apparently keeping Erick Dampier, Brendan Haywood, Grant Hill, and Jeff Foster around ain't hurting him. Bynum is the only guy I have averaging anywhere near the ranks of these guys, and he should hardly count against these "cagey" veterans.

In the midst of my successful run, I was four games above .500, 14.5 games back, and in fifth place. Today, I'm 12 games over .500, 13.5 back, and in fifth place. I've got to be happy with that. As the competition has performed better than average above me, I've performed just as well, or better. How did this happen? Well, before I go into the details, let me link to Radar, who wrote a similar article that I ran across while rethinking my team.

I took a little look-see at the Yahoo Head-to-Head stats page, which is really an invaluable resource because it tells you how you perform vs. the opposition instead of just giving you the arcane Yahoo player ranks, which overvalue 3s, and low TOs and PFs. My team generally wins O and D Rebs, Assists, and Blocks, and is bad at %, Points, and PFs. My borderline categories were 3s and Steals. If I could add those two cats to my "generally win" column, that gives me 6 out of 11 cats, and a win – statistical anomalies aside. What I looked for 20 days ago were the difference-makers. The guys playing well right now who could deliver minimum one 3 and one Steal p/game. As it turned out, Delonte West, Jefferson, Chandler, and TMac also simultaneously started to deliver in the points and %s. Hence, four wins in a row.

Here's why this is bad. Barring some kind of injury to Sucko's squad, I need to end up in 6th, 3rd or 2nd place to stand a chance in the playoffs. Why? He's killing me in total 3s, Assists, D Reb, and Steals. Those are four of my must-win cats. Yao will help with Boards, Assists, and Points, but a first-round match-up with this guy is bad news because I don't think I can revamp my team via trades to face him, nor will it benefit me now to do so. However, I think in any given week I can beat just about anyone else, and a second-place finish is at least in-the-money. All this chatter boils down to the fact that I need to get much better or tank it during the last week to get my best playoff draw. But, let's see what happens after the All-Star break and Yao's return, first.

This week I'm going up against fourth place, who is a 1/2 game ahead of me. I'm currently pulling my usual 6-5, but I'm close in FT%, Points and PFs. I feel this is a statement week as only 5 games separates me from second place.

A quick note about picking up free agents. If you've never sorted by the weekly avgs stat, it's the best tool Yahoo has for finding pickups – in basketball or baseball. A quick glance between the weekly and monthly averages, and it's easy to identify the important players, even if you don't have cable, like me. And before I make my weekly jaunt to the bar for TNT NBA tomorrow, I have to wonder why they have the Heat on every goddam week?

My NBA Fantasy Season so far, part I

I'm not quite sure how I returned home at 2am from watching the Nuggets/Spurs game and suddenly had a blog, but why the hell not. Thanks, honey.

This is the fourth iteration of my 10-manager NBA H2H keeper league. I kept AK47 and T-Mac from last year, got the second pick in the draft lottery and knew I was destined for Arenas or Yao and that that pick would forever dominate my destiny: get what I thought was a top-10 guard (so far it looks like I'm right) and scramble for centers, or get possibly the best center and grab as many value players as possible.

One aside about the draft lottery. I instituted the lottery as a way to keep the four guys in the Toilet Bowl interested through the postseason. Win the Toilet Bowl and get 4 ping pong balls, on down the line. You should try it. Plus you get to have an official drawing and everything during the NBA finals or at your Football draft or at the bar.

So, I thought I really wanted Yao because I never ever get good centers, and it would be nice to have one slot nailed down (hah!). As I expected, Arenas went first, so my decision was made for me. Here's the rest of my draft:

starting PG, SG, G, SF, F, PF, C, C, Util, Util with 3 bench slots.
scoring cats: FG%, FT%, 3PM, PTS, OReb, DReb, Ast, Stl, Blk, TO, PF

1.	(2)	Tracy McGrady
2.	(19)	Andrei Kirilenko
3.	(22)	Yao Ming
4.	(39)	Mike Bibby
5.	(42)	Mehmet Okur
6.	(59)	Chris Webber
7.	(62)	Tyson Chandler
8.	(79)	Andre Miller
9.	(82)	Danny Granger
10.	(99)	Luke Ridnour
11.	(102)	Joel Przybilla
12.	(119)	Stephen Jackson
13.	(122)	Ryan Gomes

I'm the idiot at your draft who overthinks everything looking for deep sleepers and "diamonds in the rough" and winds up being angry that his team is stocked with a bunch of untradeable losers. This year, I decided to go after any proven commodity that had fallen too low...and Tyson Chandler. I knew he'd put up double-digit rebounds and be a great complement to Yao.

Przybilla and Gomes and Webber turned out horrible, but I got rid of the first two fairly quickly, picking up Alonzo Mourning and Al Jefferson in late Novemberish. I suffered with Webber until today, and dropped my first pickup Q Rich for Tony Allen last week. Now Tony Allen is done for the year, and who's back in the lineup? Yep, Q Rich. Go New York, go New York, go! (I want 4 threes tomorrow when I'm at the Garden to see you against the Bobcats.)

I've only made 8 moves so far, which is pretty incredible since I'm a waiver wire maniac, three of which came today: the aforementioned Q Rich; on the news of Shaq's return, I dropped Zo for Andrew Bynum who's been on a tear since replacing Kwame Brown; and Webber hit the road for - God help me - Damon Stoudamire. Holy crap! But he's on fire in the new-old-ball, new-Griz era, so I'm on board, too.

As of today, the second-half roster looks as follows:

TMac - % and back is killing me. i signed on for the latter, but not .660 at the stripe
AK47 - not the AK of old, but at least he's not hurt, and he still gives you defense
Yao - please come back for the playoffs, because TMac will probably be hurt soon
Bibby - couldn't find his shot til last week, but his ranking reflects his draft pick
Okur - mini-Dirk was a good value pick, but if i had only trusted in Okafor
Chandler - everything i wanted, especially when Blks hit 1.5 pg. my one great pick
Miller - helping me out everywhere but in points, but we like stat fillers
Granger - love his game, but i'm taking trade offers, seriously, really i am
Josh Childress - back off of injury with a rusty shot, but nice defense
Al Jefferson - saw him as a starter live vs. knicks in Dec. picked him up that night
Stoudamire - for christ's sake he's almost my age, but Tony Allen's out
Q Rich - brilliant until the back spasms. 3s, boards, and decent %
Andrew Bynum - as long as you're starting, you're in

The interesting thing about this season so far is that I thought I drafted a team with decent percentages, that shared the ball, that could board and play defense, would be ok with the turnovers and fouls, and couldn't score a lick. I was right about the rebounds and assists (hey, all you need is TMac and 3 PGs to dominate that category). But I was oh, so wrong about everything else, which really surprised me.

More about identifying weaknesses and fixing them in the next post.

The season so far out of 10:

5.

the bad tippers

57-53-0

.518

14.5 games back, 5 games out of third place.

Yeah, 14.5 back. The guy in first is the only team with no major injuries. What a jerk.